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Progress

Generated 2026-08-13T18:01:11+00:00 from gate state of 2026-08-13T16:48:10+00:00. Regenerated on every merge — if this page is stale, the gate is not green.

What this project is doing. Building measuring instruments for strategic systems — how sharply players respond to incentives (λ), how far a system is from the "well-behaved" regime where everything settles down (α), and whether give-and-take between players is balanced (ℛ) — then pointing those instruments at road networks, pricing data, electricity markets and game experiments.

What works now. 28 work unit(s) fully closed (every closure includes an adversarial review by a hostile reviewer who never sees the authors' reasoning). Claim ledger: 10 established results implemented, 7 results of our own, 2 open conjectures each with a stated way to be proven wrong.

The map. Each dot is a system we point the instruments at; green means that system's anchor is in place.

α = 0 (potential — everything known)α = 1 (harmonic — cycles live here)congestionpricingelectricityblottoRPS

Track health

Track State
A · Engine 1 core healthy — 1 unit(s) closed
B · Calibration healthy — 3 unit(s) closed
C · Empirics healthy — 5 unit(s) closed
D · Product healthy — 2 unit(s) closed
Foundation healthy — 1 unit(s) closed

What's next. The first new artefact in the world: the reciprocity meter reading exactly zero on a road-congestion game and clearly positive on rock-paper-scissors — the same measurement, two systems, opposite readings. Everything else follows from that working.

Anomalies logged: 26 (anomalies are the product — each gets chased).

Gate matrix (a unit closes on domain validation, not green tests)

Unit code domain statistical documentation adversarial Overall
api.core 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
domains.blotto 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
domains.congestion 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
domains.electricity 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
domains.electricity.quench 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
domains.pricing 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
dynamics.exact 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
estimate.bayes 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
estimate.lambda 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
finite.response.reciprocity 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
population.core 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
product.toolkit 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
science.decoupling 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
science.frontier 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
science.phase_map 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
science.plane 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
science.plane.nplayers 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
science.quench_multimode 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
science.quench_regimes 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
solve.advanced 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
solve.branch 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
stage0 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
thermo.estimators 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
thermo.hs_estimator 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
thermo.hs_estimator.gate_se 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
thermo.hs_estimator.smalln 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
thermo.protocols 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢
web.scaffold 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢 🟢

Claims ledger — 10 exact · 7 derived · 2 conjectured · 2 speculative — full ledger

Benchmark results

  • bayes_recovery (statistical) — passed, unit estimate.bayes
  • blotto_readings (correctness) — passed, unit domains.blotto
  • branch_agreement (correctness) — passed, unit solve.branch
  • chain_comovement (statistical) — passed, unit dynamics.exact
  • chi_fd_agreement (correctness) — passed, unit finite.response.reciprocity
  • day_quench_read (statistical) — passed, unit domains.electricity.quench
  • decoupling_mechanism (statistical) — passed, unit science.decoupling
  • efe_mechanism_campaign (statistical) — passed, unit estimate.bayes
  • electricity_irreversibility (statistical) — FAILED, unit domains.electricity
  • electricity_irreversibility_dam (statistical) — passed, unit domains.electricity
  • electricity_irreversibility_rtm (statistical) — passed, unit domains.electricity
  • electricity_lambda (statistical) — passed, unit domains.electricity
  • None (None) — FAILED, unit None
  • equilibrium_reads_zero (correctness) — passed, unit dynamics.exact
  • estimator_alpha_sweep (statistical) — passed, unit thermo.estimators
  • estimator_ground_truth (correctness) — passed, unit thermo.estimators
  • estimator_misspecification (correctness) — passed, unit estimate.lambda
  • estimator_recovery (statistical) — passed, unit estimate.lambda
  • fast_quench_campaign (statistical) — passed, unit science.quench_regimes
  • frontier_crossover (statistical) — passed, unit science.frontier
  • frontier_lambda_c (statistical) — passed, unit science.frontier
  • frontier_scale_folding (correctness) — passed, unit science.frontier
  • gambit_agreement (correctness) — passed, unit solve.advanced
  • gate_se_read (statistical) — passed, unit thermo.hs_estimator.gate_se
  • gate_se_realdata (statistical) — passed, unit thermo.hs_estimator.gate_se
  • gibbs_agreement (correctness) — passed, unit dynamics.exact
  • hs_estimator_sweep (statistical) — passed, unit thermo.hs_estimator
  • implicit_chi_agreement (correctness) — passed, unit solve.advanced
  • ness_reads_positive (correctness) — passed, unit dynamics.exact
  • phase_map (correctness) — passed, unit science.phase_map
  • None (None) — FAILED, unit None
  • plane_nplayers (statistical) — passed, unit science.plane.nplayers
  • plane_robustness (statistical) — passed, unit science.plane
  • population_identities (correctness) — passed, unit population.core
  • pricing_edgeworth_scan (statistical) — passed, unit domains.pricing
  • pricing_passthrough_R (statistical) — passed, unit domains.pricing
  • protocol_ift_checks (statistical) — passed, unit thermo.protocols
  • protocol_quench_scan (statistical) — passed, unit thermo.protocols
  • quench_multimode_campaign (statistical) — passed, unit science.quench_multimode
  • reciprocity_alpha_sweep (statistical) — passed, unit finite.response.reciprocity
  • reciprocity_harmonic (correctness) — passed, unit finite.response.reciprocity
  • reciprocity_potential (correctness) — passed, unit finite.response.reciprocity
  • sioux_falls_calibration (correctness) — passed, unit domains.congestion
  • smalln_certification (statistical) — passed, unit thermo.hs_estimator.smalln
  • solver_cross_agreement (correctness) — passed, unit solve.advanced
  • spectrum_reality (correctness) — passed, unit finite.response.reciprocity
  • toolkit_verdicts (statistical) — passed, unit product.toolkit

Open red-team objections

None open.

The (λ, α) phase map — the money figure, filling in

phase map heat maps

Gate flow — what "closed" means

flowchart LR
    W[work unit] --> C{code gates}
    C -->|tests, types, lint, coverage, no stubs| D{domain gates}
    D -->|claim true in its domain, artifacts regenerable| S{statistical gates}
    S -->|effect sizes, CIs, n justified, seeds| Doc{documentation}
    Doc --> A{adversarial}
    A -->|red-team sign-off, objections dispositioned| G[merge to main + dashboard refresh]
    A -->|same failure twice| T[TRIZ escalation]
    T --> C